Bitcoin’s fall went even further on Friday as it continued its steady slide below the $95,000 mark. This movement places the token more than 24% below its October record above $126,000, undercoring growing concerns that digital asset markets have decisively shifted into a bearish environment.
ETF Outflows Accelerate as Risk Sentiment Weakens
The latest decline came alongside broader market turmoil, with equities sinking on fresh concerns over when, or if, the Federal Reserve will pivot toward rate cuts. Midday Friday, Bitcoin hovered above $96,000 after briefly falling to lows below $95,000.
New data added fuel to the downtrend fire. Bloomberg figures showed Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching their second-highest daily level of the year on Thursday, a sign that institutional investors have been lowering exposure amid market stress and tightening financial conditions. Crypto has also struggled to regain upward motion since last month’s steep sell-off, driven by leveraged liquidations and distribution from long-term holders. Analysts note that the market has yet to see meaningful dip-buying activity.
On-Chain Metrics Turn Decisively Bearish
According to research from 10X Research, the lack of incremental buyers aligns with a range of technical and on-chain indicators now flashing bearish. Their latest note argues that Bitcoin has entered a clear “bear market regime,” warning that a break below $93,000 could open the door to further near-term downside.
The firm sees little reason for optimism without a dovish shift from the Fed. With expectations for a December rate cut fading, analysts warn that one of Bitcoin’s historically reliable catalysts — a late-year “Santa rally” — may not take place.
Strategists Become Cautious as Catalysts Fade
Even previously bullish voices are becoming more measured. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell told clients this week that the market’s loss of momentum has become a concern, pointing to a “lack of catalysts” across the crypto landscape. He noted that an extended government shutdown has delayed liquidity injections that typically support risk assets. Any spending-related boost, he said, will take time to work through the economy.
Still, Farrell sees a potential reset ahead. A broader risk-off event, he argues, could finally reset valuations and lure buyers back into the market. A drop into the low-$90,000 range may be enough to stabilize sentiment.
Looking Ahead
With Bitcoin drifting lower and the macro backdrop shifting against risk assets, traders are bracing for more volatility. ETF outflows, cooling retail demand, and cautious institutional flows point to a market in search of direction. The next major driver will likely be the Fed. If policymakers signal that rate cuts are off the table for now, Bitcoin may struggle to find a near-term floor. But any sign of easing financial conditions, even slight, could quickly renew appetite in a market now approaching sentiment exhaustion.