Bitcoin is struggling to regain its footing after a brutal selloff that wiped out roughly $340 billion in market value last month, leaving traders uneasy and momentum fading across the crypto landscape. The token briefly touched $107,000 on Monday before slipping back under $105,000 — a sign of fragile sentiment. Activity in futures and ETF markets remains muted, suggesting that risk appetite is still limited even as broader markets show signs of recovery.
Choppy Technicals and Fading Momentum
- Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures remains significantly below recent peaks — hovering near $68 billion compared with about $94 billion just weeks ago — suggesting less speculative leverage driving the price.
- ETF flows show weakened enthusiasm: US-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulled in minimal net inflows even as equity markets rallied, pointing to a cautious institutional stance.
- Technicians point to the 200-day moving average barrier near $110,000 as a key hurdle: if Bitcoin remains pinned below this level, many believe upside conviction will remain muted.
Profit-Takers and Whale Activity Raise Red Flags
Large-scale holders of Bitcoin (so-called “whales”) appear to be cashing out near recent highs, compounding pressure on the market. With fewer new entrants bidding aggressively, supply dynamics are shifting, which could blunt short-term upside.
Some traders describe recent strength as a dead-cat bounce rather than a genuine trend reversal. One analyst noted: “It feels like some short covering plus a touch of institutional FOMO, but not yet a sustainable return to strong momentum.”
Macro and Sentiment Headwinds Are Front-and-Center
Bitcoin's vulnerability is also tied to broader macro developments. A stronger U.S. dollar, elevated interest rates, and a lack of fresh economic data (due to the government shutdown) are all creating a more challenging environment for risk assets and speculative cryptos.
In parallel, while Bitcoin had benefited earlier this year from strong ETF demand, recent data show crypto fund outflows (nearly $1 billion last week) as investor appetite cools and regulatory uncertainty remains.
Looking Ahead
Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $110,000 level and hold it. A close above that line would strengthen the case that October’s selloff marked a cycle low. Below $103,000, however, the chart turns fragile fast, with deeper support around $86,000 to $82,000. For now, crypto markets remain directionless. The next move will likely hinge on macro signals — particularly the Fed’s tone later this month — and whether sidelined institutional capital decides the selloff has gone far enough.