U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as investors dealt with mixed signals over the prospects for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, amid renewed military activity in the Middle East. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 1.17%, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined 1.55%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.78%, extending the market’s recent pullback from record highs earlier this year.
Volatility grew as strikes between Tehran and Tel Aviv rattled markets, raising concerns about global energy supply and the potential for broader economic disruption. Mid-morning reports of Iran responding to the U.S. truce proposal briefly trimmed losses, but the indexes remained in negative territory as traders weighed geopolitical risks against economic fundamentals.
Market Movers:
- Kodiak Sciences (KOD) +54% – Shares soared after positive Phase 3 results for its diabetic retinopathy therapy, Zenkuda, showing that 63% of patients achieved a ≥2-step improvement, compared with 3% in the control group. Analysts now view the treatment as BLA-ready, accelerating its regulatory timeline.
- Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) +51% – Shares jumped following a $2.06 per share acquisition deal with Henkel, valuing the company at ~$1.4B. The transaction offers a ~55% premium over the prior close and is expected to close in H2 2026 pending approvals.
- MARA Holdings (MARA) +11% – Shares rose after the company announced plans to repurchase $1B of convertible senior notes due 2030 and 2031, aiming to cut debt by 30%. Funding comes from recent sales of 15,133 bitcoin, with remaining proceeds earmarked for general purposes.
- MillerKnoll (MLKN) -21% – Shares plunged on Q3 results that missed estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $926.6M, below consensus. A soft Q4 outlook further weighed on investor sentiment.
- Pony AI (PONY) -15% – Shares fell after quarterly results showed an 18% revenue decline to $29.1M and narrowing gross margins amid rising R&D and expansion costs. The company emphasized partnerships with Toyota and Uber for robotaxi growth.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) -3% – Shares dipped following a proposed class-action lawsuit alleging securities fraud over undisclosed China-linked sales. The complaint comes after last week’s selloff linked to AI tech export concerns.
Oil and Macro Signals
Oil prices surged as Brent crude held above $100 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly topped $94, reflecting tensions in the Middle East. Rising energy costs are fueling concerns about consumer spending and inflation, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 210,000, in line with expectations, while continuing claims fell to 1.82 million, the lowest since May 2024. Labor data suggested modest softening but no widespread layoffs, giving the market a mixed signal amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Tech and Regulatory Headlines
Meta (META) shares tumbled 7% after a jury found the company and YouTube liable for damages in a high-profile case involving a minor user. The ruling could set a precedent for future lawsuits, highlighting the limits of Section 230 protections. Meanwhile, Meta also laid off 700 employees, signaling further corporate restructuring.
In crypto-finance news, Fannie Mae will soon accept cryptocurrency-backed mortgages through a partnership with Better Home & Finance and Coinbase. The product allows borrowers to pledge bitcoin or USD Coin as collateral, bridging digital assets with traditional homeownership pathways.
Looking Ahead
Investors are now navigating a mix of geopolitical risk, energy price pressures, and high-profile earnings news. While markets remain cautious in the near term, analysts note that pullbacks from record highs historically recover within one to four months, depending on fundamentals. The coming days will likely see the S&P 500 and Dow test support levels, with oil prices, Federal Reserve commentary, and Iran-U.S. negotiations shaping sentiment. For long-term investors, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with single-digit gains projected for 2026 once geopolitical uncertainties ease.